The past year was a rewarding one for many equity investors,
as most major stock markets around the world registered surprisingly strong gains
against a backdrop of an improving global economy. Prices for many fixed-income
securities such as government bonds were down slightly, however, in response to
the growing likelihood of higher interest rates.
In economic developments, steady improvement in the United
States in areas such as employment, housing and manufacturing throughout 2013 allowed
the U.S. Federal Reserve to announce a gradual withdrawal of its extraordinary stimulus
measures, which have kept interest rates at historic lows and supported the
economy since 2009. Elsewhere, growth remained moderate across other developed economies,
with Europe emerging from recession in the second quarter of the year. Several
emerging markets experienced a slowdown, though their growth rates continued to
be positive. Overall, business conditions remained supportive and some of the
risks that had earlier dampened the recovery began to recede.
These developments boosted investor confidence and supported
the gains in share prices, particularly in the latter half of the year. Japan’s
market advance was the best in the developed world, as central bank stimulus
and strong profits helped to propel the Nikkei Index an incredible 57% higher
for the year. The S&P 500 Index in the U.S. soared 32% to a record high and
its best annual performance since 1997. The MSCI World Index added 24% and the MSCI
Europe Index rose 22%, reflecting the brighter prospects for the region. Results
for several emerging market bourses, however, were weighed down by the
anticipation of higher interest rates and the heavy cost of structural reforms
in their local economies. China’s Shanghai Index dipped 7%, and the MSCI
Emerging Markets Index slid 5% for the year. (All returns are in local currency
terms.)
Canadian stocks overall posted double-digit gains in 2013, but
underperformed both the U.S. and world markets for the third year in a row. The
benchmark S&P/TSX Composite Index rallied toward the end of 2013 to gain 13%
for the 12-month period, with strong results from health care, industrials and
consumer discretionary stocks and weakness in the materials and utilities
sectors. The Canadian dollar, meanwhile, lost about 6.5% versus the U.S. dollar,
providing an additional benefit to those with global investments.
Yields of fixed-income securities increased in 2013 in
reaction to the improving U.S. economy and Fed signals that it would be
reducing or “tapering” its economic stimulus policies. For example, the yield of
the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond finished the year near 3.0%, up from about 1.6%
in late May. The flip side of rising yields is declining prices for
interest-rate sensitive securities, including government bonds, many corporate
bonds, and real
estate investment trusts. The DEX Universe Bond Index, which measures the value
of Canadian government and investment-grade corporate bonds, was down 1.2% for
the year.
While equities may not match their stellar returns of last
year, many of the conditions that have supported market advances remain in
place for 2014. Any rise in interest rates is widely expected to be moderate, economic
growth is still positive, and inflation remains under control. A diversified
portfolio that is tailored to your individual investment objectives allows you
to participate in the potential for further gains while helping to protect your
investments from market corrections.
As we head into a new year please remember I am just a phone
call should you wish to discuss your investment portfolio in greater detail.
Have a great weekend,
Tracey
Sources: The information in this letter is derived
from various sources, including CI Investments, Signature Global Asset Management,
Cambridge Global Asset Management, Globe and Mail, National Post, Bank of
Montreal Economics, and Trading Economics. Index information was provided by TD
Newcrest and PC Bond. Returns for the S&P/TSX and S&P 500 indexes are
total returns (including dividends) while other indexes are price returns. This
material is provided for general information and is subject to change without
notice. Every effort has been made to compile this material from reliable
sources; however, no warranty can be made as to its accuracy or completeness.
Before acting on any of the above, please contact me for individual financial advice based on your
personal circumstances.